Free am/FX notes
There are excellent points and counterpoints in the 2023 US recession debate. Here’s what I am watching.
Housing leads the labor market. Canada housing is a major concern. Receive Canadian rates. Buy our book.
Yields made new highs, but fixed income volatility did not. That is one more reason to be bullish world. I am bullish, and scared.
Unless you think this is 1937 or 2008, stocks look set to rally into midterms.
Why I am bullish Brazil, and don’t’ want to wait for the second round of the election to engage. Plus much more
Today’s piece is a bit longer than usual. 2000 words, 8-minute read.
Talking about variance.
Talking about how the USD used to selloff into Fed events and now rallies into them.
A deep dive into month-end FX hedging. It’s more interesting than it sounds.
8-minute read (2000 words).
Talking about:
• Positioning isn’t all that useful in bear markets. In fact, it’s directional.
• Bad news / good price is a short-term phenomenon that has probably now played out.
• Quiet, choppy consolidation to start the week, but I think you still sell rallies in stocks.
Talking about the widening gap between nominal and real and why it’s important to keep in mind that some government data is real (GDP) and much is not (Retail Sales).
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