Free am/FX notes
Today’s piece is a bit longer than usual. 2000 words, 8-minute read.
Talking about variance.
Talking about how the USD used to selloff into Fed events and now rallies into them.
A deep dive into month-end FX hedging. It’s more interesting than it sounds.
8-minute read (2000 words).
Talking about:
• Positioning isn’t all that useful in bear markets. In fact, it’s directional.
• Bad news / good price is a short-term phenomenon that has probably now played out.
• Quiet, choppy consolidation to start the week, but I think you still sell rallies in stocks.
Talking about the widening gap between nominal and real and why it’s important to keep in mind that some government data is real (GDP) and much is not (Retail Sales).
QT has entered the narrative now, big time. Look at below as equities and crypto are going to get smoked.
A guest appearance today from @Michigandolf. He talks about the third dimension of risk management: Time. High quality post, especially relevant for active traders.
A look at some USD bearish dashboard indicators plus why USDJPY is a bad short. Are we in stagflation or reflation? Bitcoin!
US exceptionalism is waning a bit just as the market is mega long USD.
A quick story from March 2008 + Why USDJPY is not an equities trade + Why everything has changed for data trading.
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