am/FX Archive

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Back from a blockbuster trip to Rio and São Paulo.

A high conviction trade idea in CNH and a metric tonne of other thoughts.

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Bitcoin and EU/UK rates

Today’s piece is mostly about bitcoin…

… but even if you don’t care about crypto you might find it makes some interesting observations on the behavior of volatility overall. And I believe it contains one of the cooler charts I’ve ever constructed.

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2 Trades 1 Poem

It is an exciting time; the new year is right around the corner.

Thanks for everything in 2023 and may 2024 exceed your expectations by at least 215%.

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Survey Results 2024

Looking at the results from our 2024 outlook survey, which includes G10 FX, EMFX, yields, and other assets.

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Round Trips

Both USDJPY and NASDAQ are back where they started their recent moves from, and I don’t see a great trade idea on either one yet.

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Tactical Considerations

The USD short has been working well, but tomorrow is corporate month end and that’s been a bad day to be short USD.

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It’s that time of year. Check out some images from the 2024 Almanac, see how the seasonal alerts have performed this year, and order the book.

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