am/FX Archive

Free am/FX notes

Crowdsourced Dots Thoughts

My conclusion from the survey we did is that the dovish FOMC outcome is underpriced. You could think about short USDJPY into FOMC and if it works, ride it into BOJ. Stop above 148.70. I like the idea but it didn’t’ quite meet sidebar-level conviction.

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Stocks and CAD

Entering the seasonal danger zone for stocks. Initial reaction to ECB is good for the EURJPY short but we need Lagarde to ratify what looks like a signal that the ECB is at the end of the cycle.

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Wen Vigilantes?

Today I offer takeaways from Camp Kotok in Maine, plus my view on what it might look like if the bond vigilantes have a revival in the US.

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Unhinged

The Fitch downgrade is irrelevant, but it does serve as a reminder of the current unhinged state of US fiscal policy. Also oil looks ready for a new, higher equilibrium.

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A collection of excerpts from Hagakure, a centuries-old collection of samurai wisdom. Inside are lessons for trading, and for life.

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What Is a Bitcoin?

Every now and then, I like to check in on bitcoin to make sure that what I think I know about it is actually true. That’s what today’s piece is about.

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