am/FX Archive

Free am/FX notes

Fed Day

FOMC today .. Here is my grid of subjective probabilities for Fed and market outcomes.

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Rabbit Hole #7

Today’s piece is Rabbit Hole Number 7. Thoughts on the two-tier US banking system.

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When to Get Short USD

I want to be short USD, but not yet. In today’s piece, I explain why and where I would like to get short USDJPY and long NZDUSD.

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Five Main Outcomes

The market is in constant reassessment mode here as there are five possible outcomes for the US economy in 2023 and the odds of each keep changing.

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Today, a short discussion of how I use RSI and a quick thought on the role of positive interest rates in setting the price of money in a functioning capitalist economy.

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