Losing Streak Odds
How long can a losing streak get?
Set your win rate and how many trades you take. The tool works out the exact odds of hitting a run of consecutive losers at least as long as you choose.
%
trades
in a row
–
Typical worst streak
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Median longest losing run
Average worst streak
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Expected longest losing run
1-in-20 bad luck
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95th percentile longest run
Distribution of the longest losing streak
Streaks at or above your threshold
Shorter worst streaks
One simulated run
Each square is a trade. Blue wins, red losses; the longest losing streak is in solid red.
Runs 10,000 random sequences and counts how often the streak shows up.
How it works. The headline number is exact, not simulated. It tracks the length of the current losing run trade by trade and adds up the probability of every path that reaches your threshold.
Assumes each trade is independent with the same win rate, and that breakeven trades are excluded. Real P&L has regime changes and correlated losers, so live streaks tend to run longer than this model suggests.
Spectra Markets