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am/FX Notes
- The Boiling Point of JPY
- Peak Reflation?
- CNY Deval and Equity Valuation Theories
- Chaotic
- Blowoff
- Dead Zone
- My USD View Plus Much Moar
- An Acute Shortage of Safe Assets
- Good Entry for Short EURJPY
- Another Policy Error? So Soon?
- Breakdowns
- Oops, I Did It Again
- Mid-April Tax Related Selling
- CPI Biased to Weak
- Aussie Post-Game Show
- Reflation and a Kinda Scary Selloff
- The Monthly Jobs Report
- US Unexceptionalism
- US Jobs: Signal vs. Noise
- Taking a shot at short USD
- Monday Thoughts
- Falling Vol
- Macro Traders Reflections
- Cuts Are Always 4 Months Away
- BoC On the Radar
- USDCNH Is Alive
- USDJPY Buy the Dip
- USDMXN and vol
- Crosswindy
- Long EURGBP
- Sus
- Penetrating the Exosphere
- CPI > AHE > NFP
- The Macro Trading Floor
- JPY BTC CAD CHF XAU
- Dollar Smilin'
- Short CADCHF
- JPY and Yields
- Everything is awesome
- Everything is Awesome
- Deep Thoughts
- Canada is a lot like NZ
- Ribbons
- Corporate Month End Analysis
- Nvidia scares bears like ophidia
- CAD, RBNZ and Signs
- Amazon and Walgreens
- NVDA Is Not a Macro Story
- Mildly Moribund
- Technology and the Teenage Mind
- Orr and CNH
- MOF to a Flame
- USA, UK and CH
- Leaning Toward Strong CPI
- Zollner Is the New Evans
- ¿Dónde está la recesión del Pie Grande?
- A Great Speech
- Envisioning Revisions
- Back in the USofA: Part 2
- Back in the USofA: Part 1
- Cruise control
- Huge Week Awaits
- Complexity
- Whiff
- Good News, Bad Price
- BOJ and RBNZ
- Goldilocks won’t die
- Friday
- 2024 Dollar Thoughts and Fat Tails in FX
- Repricing DJT
- Bitcoin and EU/UK rates
- A new centralized asset class has arrived!
- AUD and SEK
- CPI: Bias to Strong
- RRP and Two Elections
- Waiting for Thursday
- Buffalos got buffaloed
- Payrolls
- USDJPY and NOKSEK
- Imaginary but Useful
- And So It Begins
- Buffalo market, dude
- 2 Trades 1 Poem
- If It Was Easy It Wouldn't Pay So Well
- Not Yet But Soon
- Survey Results 2024
- Round Trips
- BOJ and Yields
- Powell cranks up the pivot music
- Bring the Noise
- Logical Outcomes!
- Big 24 Hours
- Reaction > Data
- Peak Loose
- Disinflationary Euphoria
- Correlation Mediation
- JPY and CHF
- Euro Support
- Trump and CHF
- Paper Hands
- Markets underestimated p(boom)
- ISM and Powell
- R*, EUR, and a Beautiful Sad Song
- Jaws
- Back to Reality?
- Tactical Considerations
- Authorities Winning
- Tufte
- Fine Tuning
- Buy the Dip
- Party Like It's 1995
- The 2024 Almanac is Ready!
- Follow Up re: Modified Sahm Rule
- Modified Sahm Rule
- 2024: Biggest Year Ever
- Bad Call
- RBA
- Gold E. Locks
- Big Diff
- Hard > Soft
- Out of -GBP into -CADJPY
- Bad News Only, Please
- More USD Buying to Come
- Gold, etc.
- Assorted
- What Part of the Yield Curve Does the Dollar Listen To?
- The Lemonhead Problem
- But Wen Will It Break Tho?
- Not Vigilantes
- All Bonds, All the Time
- Stuffed Calendar
- Bonds Survived
- Noisy
- d i s s o n a n c e
- Peak FI Vol?
- Closing Levels Are Key
- How to Be Right and Lose Money
- Choppy Bottom
- Muddy Waters
- Zooming Out
- Squozen
- One Less Vulnerability
- Is Normalization Good or Bad?
- Low Expectations
- AUD Lower into M/E
- Going Streaking
- SNB Riks BOJ
- Crowdsourced Dots Thoughts
- Two CPIs
- Malaise
- Boing
- Stocks and CAD
- Next Up: RS+ECB
- Mexico and CPI
- BOJ PBoC
- Late Edition
- EUR Sine Wave
- Urgency
- Ctrl-Alt-Delete
- The Incredible Rapidly Normalizing US Jobs Market
- August Then September
- Coming Events, and CHF
- Hairy
- Sam Rines on the Mic
- Nervously Skeptical
- One More Time
- Mildly Incoherent
- Wedges
- You Don't Sell Fazoola, You Buy It
- Level Set on USD
- Wen Vigilantes?
- No Longer Bullish USD
- Unhinged
- Strong ISM Strong USD
- 10s / RBA / USDCAD
- End of a Crazyish Week with Nikkeileaks and a YCC Tweak
- It Feels Stupid to Be Bearish Stocks
- FOMC and the View from Asia
- Bearish EUR
- Lots Going On
- Hagakure
- A Theory Based on Substantial Circumstantial Evidence
- Interesting 12 Hours
- Short GBP Is Good EV
- China, the USD, and CAD
- Blowoff Bottom in USD/¥
- USD, Gold, and Credit
- JPY, USDCAD and Trading
- CPI Is Getting Less Hard for Economists to Predict
- Sticking with Lower EUR
- Not a Game Changer
- Carry Wobbles
- H2 In Like a Lamb
- Fostering Reality in an Unreal World
- Month End: JPY GBP SEK
- EURUSD Looks High
- The Yields Decide
- Stalemate on US Yields
- Inevitable Eventuation
- CHFJPY Is Having a Moment
- Off Target
- Naught Point Four Three Six
- EURGBP, CAD and Naz
- Into ECB and NQ Mirror
- NQ CAD BOJ
- BoC and a Gold Q
- Canada Is Not Australia
- La Isla Bonita
- What Is a Bitcoin?
- GBP and More
- Tactical Considerations on USDCNH
- Topics du Jour
- Sterling, SEK, Crypto
- She Was Just Napping
- RBNZ and CNH
- Poker Mailbag and China Badness
- Trading Is a Lot Like Poker
- NZDUSD EURMXN SPX
- Tactical Short NZD
- China Reopening Theme Is Over
- That's Probably a Train Headlight at the End of the Tunnel But We Are Still Not Sure Yet
- Peak EUR?
- Thirteen in a Row
- Ominous Parallels
- Fed Day
- AUD + USA
- Vendi en Majo
- Lazarine Dollar
- Risks to Long EUR
- Short USDJPY, More at 11
- Yields Lead
- China Alarm
- Crypto and the Future of Finance
- Micro Dominoes
- Yields, USD and Gold
- Benign Consensus
- Noisy into the Weekend
- Seasonality Is Real
- Stay Short USD 'til Friday
- Slowly Getting Worse
- CFTC, MG, and NFIB
- Bring the Noise
- Holding Pattern
- Cracks
- RBA, Oil, and Dave Greiner
- Showtime for Oz
- Oswald's Boots
- Dedollarization Is Not a Thing
- Bar Not Cleared
- Short EURNOK
- London Fog
- 3-Month USDJPY and USDCHF Puts
- Cause / Effect / Circularity
- Now What?
- Unorthodox Reactions Possible
- Heavy Skew
- Jobs and Yields
- About Friday Speedrun
- Data Matters More
- Große Woche
- This Is Not What a Normal Bear Market Looks Like
- Short USDJPY
- USD Turn
- Ready Aim
- When to Get Short USD
- Dollar Thoughts
- Not Scary
- Why is JPY Vol So Cheap?
- RBNZ USD AUD and CAD
- 390, Inflection Point
- Laggy
- Retail Sales Prep
- CPI Prep
- Where's The Floor?
- Confusing
- Equilibrium
- Restructuring
- Chair Powell, Take 2
- Shifting Odds
- Stocks Down, USDCAD Up
- The Day After
- Looking Past FOMC
- Why Long NOK Is Not Long Norway
- Stalled
- Which Currencies Are Best for Short-Term Trading?
- EUR Wedge and Gold
- Short NZDCHF and Ready for Corporate Month End
- AUD, GBP, JGBs and Asteroids
- In the Long Grass
- Five Main Outcomes
- Nothing Else Matters
- It's Getting a Bit Crowded in Here
- am/FX: Triskaidekaphobia
- am/FX: CPI
- am/FX: EUR and More
- am/FX: 日本銀行
- am/FX: The Next 10 Days and 1918
- am/FX: Soft Landing Vibes
- am/FX: EURGBP and More
- am/FX: FOMC and AUD
- am/FX: TAMA
- am/FX: Lo-fi Nerdcore
- am/fx: Short CADJPY
- am/FX: RSI (and Capitalism)
- am/FX: USDJPY and a Short Story
- am/FX: TSLA, Whales, and Future Shock
- am/FX: Recession and EURGBP
- am/FX: Optimism Feels Crazy Right Now
- am/FX: Japan Wins Currency War
- am/FX: SPX and JPY
- am/FX: EURGBP Is Basing
- am/FX: Party and Hangover
- am/FX: Can't Buy Can't Sell
- am/FX: Wait 'til Tomorrow
- am/FX: Q1 2023 Survey Results
- am/FX: P Before C Is Odd
- am/FX: Stocks and AUD Should Stabilize Here
- am/FX: Stocks and EURSEK
- am/FX: Forecasting, EUR, and BoC
- am/FX: 2023 Came Early
- am/FX: Jobs and a Weird Anomaly
- am/FX: Mélange
- Common Traits of Top Traders
- am/FX: New Regime
- am/FX: Recession: For and Against
- am/FX: It Depends
- am/FX: Good News for Bonds
- am/FX: Short AUDUSD
- am/FX: 2023 and RIP MMT?
- am/FX: Regime Screen
- am/FX: 200D
- am/FX: Consolidate
- am/FX: Grandes Movimientos
- am/FX: Oops, I Did It Again
- am/FX: Remember Crypto?
- am/FX: Add It Up
- am/FX: Choppier
- am/FX: Risk of USD Parabola Is Back
- am/FX: Doppelgänger Cycles
- am/FX: Terminal Stuck on 5
- am/FX: The Message Changed in 10 Days?
- am/FX: How to Lie with RFI
- am/FX: The Closest Thing to Magic
- am/FX: Momentary Dispersion
- am/FX: Housing and Cycles
- am/FX: JPY GBP SPX China
- am/FX: USDJPY Is Mad
- am/FX: Something Is Different
- am/FX: Hang In There
- am/FX: Faith No More
- am/FX: Based
- am/FX: Bullish Action
- am/FX: Playing for Softness
- am/FX: Runup and USD Down
- am/FX: DM Is the New EM
- am/FX: Brazil Is Excellent
- am/FX: Cable Top
- am/FX: Violent Flux
- am/FX: Macro Dinner Notes
- am/FX: Definitely Maybe
- am/FX: Cable Cut
- am/FX: Seasonals, False Precision, and Ben Hunt
- am/FX: Drawn Out Battle
- am/FX: Won't Get Fooled Again
- am/FX: US Dollar: A Honey Badger
- am/FX: Still No Fear
- am/FX: Beware the Equinox
- am/FX: Time Flies
- am/FX: Why the Yankees Sucked in August
- am/FX: Reset Button
- am/FX: Correction, or Turn?
- am/FX: JPY Rodeo
- am/FX: JPY Rodeo
- am/FX: Regime Changing
- am/FX: Regime Changing
- am/FX: USDJPY and USDCNH
- am/FX: USDJPY and USDCNH
- am/FX: Mostly JPY
- am/FX: Mostly JPY
- am/FX: The Logic for Long GBP
- am/FX: The Logic for Long GBP
- am/FX: Margin of Safety
- am/FX: Margin of Safety
- am/FX: Echoes and Rhymes
- am/FX: Echoes and Rhymes
- am/FX: Swiss Miss
- am/FX: Swiss Miss
- am/FX: A Small But Notable Shift in Sentiment
- am/FX: A Small But Notable Shift in Sentiment
- am/FX: EURUSD and Stocks
- am/FX: EURUSD and Stocks
- am/FX: EURUSD Information
- am/FX: EURUSD Information
- am/FX: Stalled
- am/FX: Electric Shock
- am/FX: Trade Imbalances
- am/FX: The Run Up to JH
- am/FX: Euro Drivers 19AUG22
- am/FX: A Matter of Truss 18AUG22
- am/FX: Mildly Restrictive 17AUG22
- am/FX: A Good Time of Year to Buy FX Vol 16AUG22
- am/FX: Time Dilation 15Aug22
- am/FX: EUR and KRW 12AUG22
- am/FX: Nice Location for Short EURUSD 11AUG22
- AMFX Vol Killer 10AUG22
- AMFX Seven Maine Takeaways 09AUG22
- Before You Fly the Nest
- AMFX Overshoot and Reboot 3AUG22
- MTC 28 Hodge Podge 2AUG22
- AMFX Yield Curve JPY and GBP 2AUG22
- AMFX Expansionary Contraction 1AUG22
- AMFX Post mortem 29JUL22
- RIP Month End Models
- AMFX Not another FOMC preview 27JUL22
- AMFX Too early for cuts 26JUL22
- AMFX Trends resume tomorrow 25JUL22
- AMFX Soft usually leads hard 22JUL22
- AMFX Voila 21JUL22
- AMFX Correlated Parlay 20JUL22
- AMFX a n t i c i p a t i o n 19JUL22
- AMFX It is still sell rallies 18JUL22
- AMFX Monetary Derealization 8JUL22
- AMFX Monetary Derealization 8JUL22
- AMFX A tool by any other name 7JUL22
- am/FX: JPY Narrative in Flux
- am/FX: Bad News Is Good News
- am/FX: Hyperspeed
- AM/FX: Half way there
- AM/FX: Gap and Trap
- AM/FX: Down but not out
- AM/FX: OER and Sintra
- AM/FX: How to succeed as a sell side trader
- AM/FX: Happy place
- AM/FX: Prices are no longer rising
- AM/FX: Everyone hates the euro
- am/FX: EUR BTD
- am/FX: Central bank convergence
- AM/FX: Who watches the Watchmen?
- am/FX: Addicted to Gradualism
- am/FX: The politics of Japanese inflation have changed
- am/FX: The EUR is broken
- AM/FX: Nine-dollar milkshake
- AM/FX: USDJPY... Ride into the danger zone
- AM/FX: A dragon named Lazarus
- AM/FX: Equity market sensitivity to rates keeps rising
- AM/FX: Jobs, Sam and JPY
- AM/FX: Clickbait, EURCHF and Todd
- AM/FX: 3800/4300
- AM/FX: The Fed Straddle
- AM/FX: Miami Trip Notes
- AM/FX: Turn of the month
- AM/FX: NZDCHF lower
- AM/FX: High water and house money
- AM/FX: Vigilance
- AM/FX: Sell the GBJPY rally
- AM/FX: 103 is prime
- AM/FX: EUR VIX XAU GBP
- AM/FX: EDZ2, gold and crypto
- AM/FX: Regime Shift
- AM/FX: Pivots
- AM/FX: Sniffing out a corr flip
- AM/FX: Forget UR, short CADJPY
- AM/FX: The most important trading decision
- AM/FX: The Powell Cap
- AM/FX: Plotting the Fed
- AM/FX: Short USDSEK
- AM/FX: Dollar at a crossroads
- AM/FX: Dirtcon Day 2
- AM/FX: Dirtcon Day 1
- AM/FX: Oz NULL
- AM/FX: Bricks
- AM/FX: Phillips vs. "Phillips"
- AM/FX: Gil Grissom
- AM/FX: BrickBreaker
- AM/FX: How crazy? This crazy
- AM/FX: Bulls, bears, and micropigs
- AM/FX: Unclear
- AM/FX: Great Expectations
- AM/FX: Non-Veblen
- AM/FX: Risks and more risks
- AM/FX: Round 1 goes to
- AM/FX: Matt Levine is(n') worried about liquidity
- AM/FX: Reality Bites
- AM/FX: Ways to play EURUSD to 1.05
- AM/FX: Pressure
- Money Can Buy Happiness
- AM/FX: Money can buy happiness (in variable and diminishing quantities)
- AM/FX: Rolling over
- AM/FX: Hovercraft
- AM/FX: I think it is random
- AM/FX: The picture has changed
- AM/FX: Stocks JPY Cable
- AM/FX: Sell USD on first Fed hike
- AM/FX: Always and everywhere
- AM/FX: Ding ding
- AM/FX: JPY seasonality ++
- AM/FX: antiantifragile
- AM/FX: Sometimes the best thing to do is to do nothing
- AM/FX: Contagion is hard to trade
- AM/FX: CAD weirdness plus
- AM/FX: Technical analysis can reveal underlying market structure
- AM/FX: USDCAD looks high
- AM/FX: Where to stash all the cash?
- AM/FX: New World Order
- AM/FX: Global Micro
- AM/FX: War
- Technical Analysis Can Reveal Underlying Market Structure
- AM/FX: GBPCAD lower
- AM/FX: Risky safe havens
- AM/FX: Short USDJPY
- AM/FX: Quitters
- AM/FX: Occam and Damocles
- AM/FX: Crude observations
- AM/FX: 10X31 Grid
- AM/FX: Odiferous
- AM/FX: Six bullets
- AM/FX: Parabolic
- AM/FX: Adding AUDCAD
- AM/FX: Triangle, octagon, and golden arches
- AM/FX: Changes not levels
- AM/FX: Tree, meet sky
- AM/FX: Interesting Signal
- AM/FX: Blown transmission
- AM/FX: Nice setup for short USD
- AM/FX: QT2, With a Vengeance
- AM/FX: Aftermath
- AM/FX: Jet ski is to aircraft carrier
- AM/FX: BoC FOMC Exacta
- AM/FX: Hitting the Trifecta
- AM/FX: Ripe for a dead cat bounce
- AM/FX: USA 9, Canada 5
- AM/FX: No fear
- AM/FX: Something weird is going on
- AM/FX: Harder better faster stronger
- AM/FX: Russia and BOJ
- AM/FX: Inextricably linked
- AM/FX: It makes sense
- AM/FX: Please place seat backs and tray tables in their full upright and locked position
- AM/FX: Complexity and complacency
- AM/FX: Don't
- AM/FX: QT2--With a Vengeance
- AM/FX: CB convergence would be a big surprise
- AM/FX: On the other hand
- AM/FX: Notable Unanimity
- The Magazine Cover Indicator
- AM/FX: Lower volumes
- AM/FX: Til Tuesday
- AM/FX: Riffing on risk
- AM/FX: Unwinding
- AM/FX: Loose as Burns
- AM/FX: Two big questions
- AM/FX: Even hawkisher?
- AM/FX: Macro Dinner Notes
- AM/FX: Two trades
- AM/FX: Two Observations
- AM/FX: BoC and Fed
- AM/FX: Oddly-shaped curve
- AM/FX: Bonkers
- AM/FX: Policy complexity and the cheapness of AUD
- AM/FX: Is the Fed put still a thing?
- AM/FX: Has USDJPY topped?
- AM/FX: Pavlov's Dogs
- AM/FX: Here we go again
- AM/FX: Other side of the boat
- AM/FX: TRY, XAU, and USD
- AM/FX: AUDCHF and The Big Reveal
- AM/FX: Survey views and crypto blues
- AM/FX: 6-day 1.0300 AUDNZD put
- AM/FX: Dangerously dovish
- AM/FX: 3 point something
- AM/FX: CNH and SPR
- AM/FX: Wonky
- AM/FX: Whip Inflation Now
- AM/FX: Rebus
- AM/FX: Speaking of Brainard
- AM/FX: Log rules
- AM/FX: Trade UR, not headline
- AM/FX: The politics of inflation have changed
- AM/FX: Hypothesis Rejected
- AM/FX: Skeptical of gradual
- AM/FX: Pegs are great, except when they don't work
- AM/FX: A new chair?
- AM/FX: Rates not translating
- AM/FX: The SHIB/DOGE flippening
- AM/FX: Short USDCAD into BoC
- AM/FX: Moths to a flame
- AM/FX: Short AUDNZD
- AM/FX: Oil, gas, Oz and BTC!
- AM/FX: Bam bam bam bam
- AM/FX: High conviction cable idea
- AM/FX: Bob Ross is the coolest
- AM/FX: De, stag, in, re
- AM/FX: USA less exceptional
- AM/FX: Must reprogram algos
- AM/FX: Tedison
- AM/FX: DMN
- AM/FX: Fooled by randomness
- AM/FX: Unintended Consequences
- AM/FX: Brent's crude thoughts
- AM/FX: Gas panic
- AM/FX: Controlled demolition
- AM/FX: You have to see it for yourself
- AM/FX: Non-standard
- AM/FX: Peaking
- AM/FX: Stonks and BTC
- AM/FX: China and the best Fed bets
- AM/FX: Rectification
- AM/FX: Swiveling on the 55
- AM/FX: It's OK to be wrong
- AM/FX: Tomorrow is Tuesday
- AM/FX: Rectification
- AM/FX: One Week
- AM/FX: Unanchored
- AM/FX: Debasement worries
- AM/FX: FinTwit favorites
- AM/FX: Silver 2023
- AM/FX: A Historic Day
- AM/FX: Bitcoin Bull
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