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Taking one more shot at short USDJPY, even though I got stopped out of the EURJPY short. Because all signs point to BOJ intervention, in my eyes.
Significant-looking tops in commodities may signal that we are near or past the peak in the inflation reacceleration narrative—and US yields.
First, the arguments for a China deval are reasonable but not awesomely compelling to me. Second, as time goes by, the arguments for a relationship between US GDP and US stock prices become even less compelling.
This week was not for the faint of heart as we saw a toxic mix of small, medium, and large geopolitical, macro, and idiosyncratic shocks.
Scary blowoffs like we just saw in USDMXN are usually the end of the move, not the start of something bigger.
The second half of April is likely to be much less exciting than the first half but the next few days could remain spicy as Williams says rate hikes are not off the table.
John Mauldin, Chairman
Mauldin Economics
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