Specs have been exiting GBP shorts and putting on AUD longs. Chinese copper import premiums are at an all-time low – bearish copper.
Taking one more shot at short USDJPY, even though I got stopped out of the EURJPY short. Because all signs point to BOJ intervention, in my eyes.
Significant-looking tops in commodities may signal that we are near or past the peak in the inflation reacceleration narrative—and US yields.
First, the arguments for a China deval are reasonable but not awesomely compelling to me. Second, as time goes by, the arguments for a relationship between US GDP and US stock prices become even less compelling.
This week was not for the faint of heart as we saw a toxic mix of small, medium, and large geopolitical, macro, and idiosyncratic shocks.
Scary blowoffs like we just saw in USDMXN are usually the end of the move, not the start of something bigger.
The second half of April is likely to be much less exciting than the first half but the next few days could remain spicy as Williams says rate hikes are not off the table.
I am USD bearish but waiting for a sign before entering. Plus thoughts on MOF intervention impact on USDJPY and TY. And, the quarterly trade idea results.
In a world of inflation fear and high bond market volatility, there are not many good safe havens to hedge a rapid collapse in equities.
Japanese yields are on the move and this short squeeze in EURJPY is a good opportunity to sell near the highs. Intervention is a meaningful kicker.
We’re seeing potentially the second policy error in three years as the Fed can’t help but stay true to its dovish DNA. Another everything rally as central banks cut.
Despite lower US yields overnight, the USD has rallied as global yields fall more. 1.2500 finally broke in cable and a close below opens up the downside.
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