The short-term Fed outlook is blurry even as the primary story is one of two options.
Much hinges on Waller, but USDJPY shorts are getting a bit crowded and AUDCAD has some bullish features.
Markets have not yet been diagnosed with election fever. 3355 is the new 5000.
The USD down trade isn’t working but it’s also not really not working. Welcome to the 2024 stretch run!
Powell and NFP are key hurdles for the dollar bears. I expect stumbles.
Hard to see much further downside for the dollar unless something major changes.
USDCAD comes up against two idiosyncratic risks and a big support level. EURUSD is moving into thin air.
There is no emergency and therefore 25bps is likely the signal at Jackson Hole this week and the action taken at 2051 Constitution Avenue on September 18.
The yen carry blowup and weak nonfarm payrolls data from the start of August already feels like some kind of weird fever dream at this point.
The applecart is upright again after a tempestuous two weeks and we are back in what feels like a stable equilibrium. Now we stare into Jackson Hole.
Divergent economic indicators help the AUDNZD long. It’s not obvious what the next hype cycle in crypto will look like.
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