I think so, but the price action isn’t exactly panicky
It’s hard to find positive NIIP currencies with good carry
The Moody’s downgrade offers no new information but plays to the market’s narrative bias
I was going to use “Rolling in the NIIP” as my title but I exercised self-control
Best to believe there is no theme right now and wait for one to appear.
Things are moving, but they’re not really moving.
The SELL AMERICA theme got oversubscribed, but that doesn’t mean it’s over
Ex-ante it would have been hard to argue that a Bessent meeting with China was priced in.
Ex-post, it’s hard to argue it was not.
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