The Spectra Markets Library

Spectra publications and written works

friday speedrun
Friday Speedrun

Chaotic

This week was not for the faint of heart as we saw a toxic mix of small, medium, and large geopolitical, macro, and idiosyncratic shocks.

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am/FX

Blowoff

Scary blowoffs like we just saw in USDMXN are usually the end of the move, not the start of something bigger.

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am/FX

Dead Zone

The second half of April is likely to be much less exciting than the first half but the next few days could remain spicy as Williams says rate hikes are not off the table.

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am/FX

My USD View Plus Much Moar

I am USD bearish but waiting for a sign before entering. Plus thoughts on MOF intervention impact on USDJPY and TY. And, the quarterly trade idea results.

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am/FX

An Acute Shortage of Safe Assets

In a world of inflation fear and high bond market volatility, there are not many good safe havens to hedge a rapid collapse in equities.

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am/FX

Good Entry for Short EURJPY

Japanese yields are on the move and this short squeeze in EURJPY is a good opportunity to sell near the highs. Intervention is a meaningful kicker.

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friday speedrun
Friday Speedrun

Another Policy Error? So Soon?

We’re seeing potentially the second policy error in three years as the Fed can’t help but stay true to its dovish DNA. Another everything rally as central banks cut.

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am/FX

Breakdowns

Despite lower US yields overnight, the USD has rallied as global yields fall more. 1.2500 finally broke in cable and a close below opens up the downside.

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am/FX

Oops, I Did It Again

In an MMT world where the Fed has truncated the policy distribution by promising no more rate hikes, inflation rebounds. There is zero possibility of tax hikes to deal with inflation so the primary cure for this inflationary reacceleration, if it gets worse, needs to be rate hikes.

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am/FX

Mid-April Tax Related Selling

Traders that have large gains in big up years need to sell stock into April 15 to pay their taxes. This creates a persistent seasonal pattern where stocks trade heavy into April 15 and then rip higher once the unconditional selling flow is done.

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am/FX

CPI Biased to Weak

March seasonality and falling prices paid indexes point to the potential for weak US CPI tomorrow. This will light a fire under AUDUSD given positioning and the macro outlook for a bottoming of the global manufacturing cycle.

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am/FX

Aussie Post-Game Show

AUD held in well after a strong NFP. An analysis of a limited sample of similar occurrences backs up my theory on bad news / good price: It’s a real thing, but it only lasts a day or two.

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The Macro Trading Floor podcast

Catch up with Brent Donnelly and Macro Alf every week on The Macro Trading Floor. Listen as they discuss themes that are moving markets, highlight important trade ideas, and get to the bottom of what’s going on in macro.

“am/FX is a must read for everyone who wants to 
understand global macro trading.”

John Mauldin, Chairman
Mauldin Economics

50 Trades in 50 Weeks

One year of good ideas, dumb mistakes, and timeless trading lessons over a wide range of topics like tactics, strategy, mindset, risk management, and of course the psychology of successful trading. Watch real trade ideas come to life in real time.

Learn from the legends.

Tap into the wisdom of the most respected names in global markets. Connect theory to practice and advance your career. Coming soon!