This looks like a good spot to fade the JPY move.
What percentage of Americans do you think have ever been stung by a bee?
What about by a spider?
Jellyfish?
highlights
Fading
Current Views
Long USDJPY @ 152.50
Stop loss 150.94
Long AUDJPY @ 99.47
Stop loss 97.42
Overcooked
USDJPY is as about as oversold as it gets, currently trading 4% below the 100-period MA on the 4-hour chart (see bottom panel of first chart today). It has also converged to approximately where US 10-year yields suggest is finger-in-the-air fair value. Furthermore, Donald Trump’s victory odds are higher this morning, not lower, and if you believe his falling win probability was a partial driver of the massive degrossing this week, that helps too.
I think this is the time to fade these moves. Long USDJPY and AUDJPY here with stops at 150.94 and 97.42 respectively. Also note the 152 level is huge in USDJPY. See chart which shows 152 has been a massive pivot all the way back to October 2023.
Final Thoughts
Keeping it nice and short today as things are flying around. If you are in a fading mood, EURNOK and EURCHF are also extremely overcooked.
Have a honey of a day.
