am/FX: Q1 2023 Survey Results

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Results from my recent 2023 outlook survey. Mostly bearish.

by Brent Donnelly

December 9, 2022

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Current Views

Long AUDUSD @ 0.6712

Stop loss 0.6684

Take profit TBD

Short EURSEK at 10.9140

Stop loss at 11.0520 or cover at 11AM NY December 29.

December 9, 2022

Q1 2023 Survey Results

I am still thinking PPI will be weak. I will move the stop in AUDUSD up to 0.6684 and remove the take profit so as not to leave a juicy offer dangling for the algos. If PPI is negative, AUDUSD could trend into next week because people will assume it’s indicative of CPI.

Today: the results of the Q1 2023 survey I sent a few days ago. There were 320 responses. I did not include the USD as one of the options in the currency questions, so I did a Twitter poll and here is the result. Incredibly even dispersion of views.

Now here are my complete survey results.

Takeaways

The overall vibe of the results is bearish and seems to reflect a bad economy but not much rate relief. As is this case with Wall Street strategists, am/FX readers expect stocks down next year. Long JPY is the strongest view overall, which I think is interesting because while sentiment is strong, I don’t think there is much positioning yet. This makes me think cross/JPY will probably fall into year end as speculators sell to position for 2023.