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Today’s note is just 800 words, but it also includes ten minutes of puzzlin’ pleasure
Summer Fun and Games Edition
It’s a quiet week in late summer; here is an update on my views:
- ETH remains buy the rumor into 19SEP Merge date, but I’m now less optimistic than I have been on ETH because US stocks are crazy overbought, and the perfect touch and fail at 2000 in ETH is a bit concerning given the level of pre-Merge bullishness.
- BTC is soggy, reluctantly rallying in sympathy with stonks and ETH but lacking any true ambition of its own.
- Short MSTR is a good proxy trade if you are bearish crypto here (see MTC 29).
Before we get to the puzzle (!), I need to publish a major correction from last week. Something was wrong with my bitcoin halving cycle xls and I wrongly said the good part of the halving cycle is here. It is not. It doesn’t arrive until August 2023 and that is a blatant and careless error on my part.
Here is the corrected chart of the halving cycles. Apologies for the unforced error and thank you to the readers that pointed it out.
Bitcoin performance over the three halving cycles
I am a little embarrassed by this, but I suppose it puts me in good company along with Thomas Piketty, Carmen Reinhart, and Ken Rogoff.
Puzzlin’
It’s late summer, not that much is going on in crypto since MTC29, and I feel bad about the halving cycle mistake. So, I made you a crossword.
You can print it out and solve it manually, or simply go here to solve the crossword online. In the past, when I published a crossword in am/FX, people always asked me if there is a prize. No, there’s no prize! LOL. Here’s the puzzle:
Somewhat Related Material
In my trader education Substack this week, I wrote a simple piece about the use of horizontal lines as support and resistance. Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, as Leo used to say (Da Vinci, not DiCaprio). The piece discussed a simple, high leverage way to short MSTR. If that’s the sort of thing you’re interested in, you can read it here (it’s free).
Summer reads
Since this is a light edition of MTC, let me recommend three late summer reads.
- Greenlights by Matthew McConaughey. The audiobook is pure gold. Funny, somewhat inspiring, clever, and full of ah shucks wisdom… A great way to kill the time on a long drive.
- The Reset by Jack Moore. At times terrifying, but also full of dark humor. A novel about broken love, addiction, US hyperinflation, the death of paper money, and the last days of American Capitalism. This book is dark so only read it if you like books like American Psycho, Requiem for a Dream, Less than Zero, etc.
- Why Buddhism is True by Robert Wright. The Science and Philosophy of Meditation and Enlightment. Not as boring as it sounds. Helped me understand the dissonant voices inside my head a bit better.
Quick Market thoughts
The two main ranges to monitor in BTC remain unchanged. Nearby range is 20000/25000 and 18700/28300 on the wide. The path of least resistance in ETH remains up into the week of 19SEP, though I’m less optimistic than I have been on ETH as US stocks are crazy overbought, and the perfect touch of 2000 in ETH is a bit concerning given the level of bullishness pre-Merge.
Furthermore, we have gone from apocalyptic 2008-style bearishness in stocks four weeks ago to meme stock frenzy today. The sentiment shift is notable and it’s not bullish for risky assets overall.
That’s it ! Thanks for reading … Back to juicier fare next week.
bd