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The Macro Odds Board
Spectra Markets / Polymarket Dashboard

THE MACRO ODDS BOARD.

A concise macro probability board: live central-bank distributions, year-end asset buckets, inflation, growth, trade policy, and geopolitical risk. Each card shows the probability of the specific outcome listed.
Central banks Assets Economy Geopolitics
Connecting to Polymarket… Loading active markets
Showing outcomes with 3% or higher probability. Lower-probability outcomes are hidden, not reassigned. A dash means Polymarket has no active contract for that outcome.
POLICY / DISTRIBUTIONS

Central bank decision odds

Five displayed outcome categories per meeting: cuts 50+ bp, cuts 25 bp, unchanged, hikes 25 bp, and hikes 50+ bp. Each cell is the price of that outcome’s own Yes token, so a column may not total exactly 100%. A dash means no active contract, not zero. Meetings appear when Polymarket lists them and drop off when they close.

Federal Reserve

FOMC
ASSETS / YEAR END

Year-end prices & Bitcoin targets

S &P 500 uses year-end closing-price ranges. Bitcoin and gold show touch probabilities by year end (↑ hit or exceed; ↓ hit or fall below). These are overlapping events and do not sum to 100%. Polymarket lists no gold closing-range contract.
Read this first: Prices are market-implied probabilities, not calibrated forecasts. Every figure is read from Polymarket: markets are discovered through the Gamma API and each outcome is priced from its own token on the CLOB order book (bid/ask midpoint, or last trade when the spread is wider than 10¢). Closed, resolved and expired markets are dropped; nothing is estimated or renormalized. Multi-outcome cards show the leading open outcome. Small markets may have wide spreads and noisy prices. Always check resolution rules and live order books before trading.