Suddenly, massive tariffs look underpriced again.
Doctors are 14% more likely to diagnose a child as having ADHD if the visit occurs on Halloween.
Long a 1-month 1.4600 USDCAD call
for 33bps off 1.44 spot
While the nonsense around Greenland and a potential takeover of Canada have captured the most giggles and attention in the past 48 hours, the more serious topic of hardcore tariffs on allies and competitors does not seem to be taken fully seriously by the market. While one might have taken the view that Justin Trudeau’s departure would reduce Trump’s trolling of Canada, we have seen in the past 24 hours that this is not the case. Even post-resignation, Trump specifically mentioned Canadian autos and lumber yesterday and continues to send out warning flares.
I think USDCAD will be substantially higher if a large tariff is enacted on Canada in Trump’s first few weeks, and I don’t think tariffs are fully priced at all.
The simple trade here is to buy 1-month 1.4600 USDCAD calls. I am adding that to the sidebar as a trade now.
You can see in the chart that 1.4680 is an absolutely epic level, so I would expect massive acceleration through there on a tariff announcement. We might even get there before January 20th, in which case you have a nice strike to trade, regardless of the outcome.
I don’t like doing call spreads here because you want to own the potential convexity of a move to 1.5000.
I will keep it short today because I want to get this out in case USDCAD motors higher. Here is a good article on how the DOGE initiative is more like Reagan’s unsuccessful Grace Commission, not like any private sector cost cutting initiative or the Argentinian dream scenario:
https://www.axios.com/2025/01/06/musk-milei-trump-spending-doge
Have a highly-attentive day.
Abstract: The practice of medicine relies on accurate diagnosis. However, the diagnosis of many medical conditions involves assessments that invite varying degrees of subjectivity. External and arbitrary factors can influence physicians’ diagnostic assessments in conditions ranging from heart attacks to neurodevelopmental conditions like attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD).
Quantifying this subjectivity is challenging, however, particularly for neurodevelopmental and psychiatric conditions where subjective assessments of behavior are common and important. Halloween, a holiday characterized by excitement among children, could present a natural experiment to study subjectivity in diagnosis, if any ensuing behavioral changes influence diagnosis rates of ADHD. Using data on over 100 million physician office visits, we compared ADHD diagnosis rates, by day, among children seen by physicians in the ±10 weekdays surrounding seven Halloween holidays.
The rate of new ADHD diagnosis was 62.7 per 10,000 child-visits on Halloween, compared with 55.1 during surrounding weekdays, a 14% increase. There were no increases in diagnoses of several neuropsychiatric disorders with diagnostic criteria that are less focused on hyperactive behavior. Our findings highlight subjectivity in ADHD diagnosis and support the need to consider external factors that may influence diagnosis.
Initial Claims don’t mean revert. Technicals vs. seasonals battle in stocks
Hawkish RBNZ hasn’t unlocked much upside for NZJDPY yet. US bonds trade well.
