• Changes vs. levels
• US real rates
• Turnaround Tuesday, recency bias, and market efficiency
• More
Markets are too complacent on the Fed. ECB is itching to pivot. ETH take profit has been hit.
Talking about nonfarm payrolls, QT, CAD jobs, Bullard slides and where humans like to live.
QT is back with a vengeance and USDJPY is crowded. Sell cross/JPY or buy 1-month CADJPY and AUDJPY puts.
The BOJ sources story is another reason to avoid the crowded long USDJPY trade.
I don’t like long USD but I don’t want to beat my head against the keyboard by going short USD every day either.
The consensus view is for a higher USD in 2022. The consensus was badly wrong in 2021. Includes a tactical short USDJPY trade idea.
In this article I look at the empirical evidence in support of The Magazine Cover Indicator. With Elon Musk gracing Time’s cover as the 2021 Person of the Year, it seems like a good time to revisit this topic.
Turnaround Tuesday has been textbook. Now the decision is whether to get greedy or hit a bid.
There is an opportunity for tactical bulls to go long S&P 500 futures at the close today. Turnaround Tuesday.
A guest appearance today from @Michigandolf. He talks about the third dimension of risk management: Time. High quality post, especially relevant for active traders.
The Fed result was all over the place and we are unwinding all the hawkish Fed bets.
Catch up with Brent Donnelly and Macro Alf every week on The Macro Trading Floor. Listen as they discuss themes that are moving markets, highlight important trade ideas, and get to the bottom of what’s going on in macro.
John Mauldin, Chairman
Mauldin Economics
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