Podcasts

Alf and Brent discuss the weak labor market data and the likely Fed reaction function. The duo also reflects on how you might be right on the macro idea, but market pricing at inception of your trade matters sometimes more than whether you were directionally right or wrong.

Alf and Brent discuss the crossroads ahead of us for the economy and markets: the USD selling seems to have lost steam, and tariffs’ impact on the economy won’t be easy to judge for months. So, what lies ahead of us?

Alf and Brent discuss the recent soft CPI print and the state of the US labor market. They highlight the odds of a dovish Fed pivot, and what that might entail for markets.

Alf and Brent discuss the reflexivity bias: now that the S&P500 is rallying again, investors are keen to talk about AI Capex driving indexes higher – where were they when we hit 4800? Always be aware of your negative and positive biases. The duo also discusses recession odds and a gameplan to approach rates, FX and equity markets.

This week, Alf and Brent focus on an obscure yet crucial component of FX flows: the hedging needs from large institutional investors. These whales own $33+ trillion of USD-denominated assets, and over the last 15 years they have systematically under-hedged their USD exposure – were they to change their mind forecasting a weaker USD, there could be trillions of US Dollars to sell.

Alf and Brent discuss the incredible price action we are witnessing: USD down, equities down, and now bond yields up too. This is what Bond Vigilantes price action looks like, and while it’s typical in emerging markets it’s almost unprecedented in the US.

Alf and Brent discuss the ”Liberation Day” deadline for tariffs – and come up with some interesting conclusions. Also, the duo assesses what the Trump administration’s long-term plan might be. Finally, Alf and Brent discuss the concept and risk management behind carry trades.

Alf and Brent discuss the German fiscal stimulus announcement: with its gigantic magnitude and fast-track process, this marks a historical turnaround for Germany and Europe. The implications for markets are big in stocks, bonds, and FX.