Podcasts

Have a great macro trade idea for Alf and Brent to discuss on the show? Send your trade idea here: Trade of the week

Alf and Brent discuss the vicious momentum unwind which took down precious metals and various speculative stock market sectors: what should we expect now? The duo also discusses the upcoming US CPI, and take a step back to assess the big picture macro setup we will likely face for the next 6-9 months.

Have a great macro trade idea for Alf and Brent to discuss on the show? Send your trade idea here: Trade of the week

In this episode, Alf and Brent discuss the massive rally in precious metals: what’s behind it? Is it a broad debasement theme or just a big momentum trade? And is Dimon right when he talks about more cockroaches in credit markets?

Alf and Brent discuss the latest attempt from Trump to gain more control over the Fed, and the implications this might have on multiple asset classes. They also discuss the JPY and the political situation in France.

Alf and Brent discuss the weak labor market data and the likely Fed reaction function. The duo also reflects on how you might be right on the macro idea, but market pricing at inception of your trade matters sometimes more than whether you were directionally right or wrong.

Alf and Brent discuss the crossroads ahead of us for the economy and markets: the USD selling seems to have lost steam, and tariffs’ impact on the economy won’t be easy to judge for months. So, what lies ahead of us?

Alf and Brent discuss the recent soft CPI print and the state of the US labor market. They highlight the odds of a dovish Fed pivot, and what that might entail for markets.

Alf and Brent discuss the reflexivity bias: now that the S&P500 is rallying again, investors are keen to talk about AI Capex driving indexes higher – where were they when we hit 4800? Always be aware of your negative and positive biases. The duo also discusses recession odds and a gameplan to approach rates, FX and equity markets.

This week, Alf and Brent focus on an obscure yet crucial component of FX flows: the hedging needs from large institutional investors. These whales own $33+ trillion of USD-denominated assets, and over the last 15 years they have systematically under-hedged their USD exposure – were they to change their mind forecasting a weaker USD, there could be trillions of US Dollars to sell.