highlights

Breaking Badly

Levels breaking everywhere as momentum is gone and fear is here

November 14, 2025

Monarch Butterfly wing under a microscope

Current Views

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It’s all breaking

It’s a nightmare for the bulls as the AI / momentum / retail bubble is bursting, UK gilts are going wild, precious metals made a spectacular double top, EURCHF has broken through the all-time lows (ex-SNB flash crash) and there is nowhere to hide. The 29OCT market reaction to META’s earnings marks an important peak in AI narrative, sentiment, and price… And here we are.

For perspective, I suppose there could be plenty more to go given how far we have rallied and how relentlessly gluttonous retail specs have been all around the world.

I tried a flipper getting long on Wednesday morning and now stopped out as all my levels have broken. This has been a nightmare week for me as everything I have touched has turned black, and AUDNZD stopped me out and is now crashing. Worst week of the year for Brent Donnelly. I suppose one week had to be the worst. This is the one.

UK

There have been a ton of back and forth headlines from the UK today, and the net has been that gilts are flying all over the place. GBP has been relatively contained with EURGBP only 15 pips higher, but look at gilts:

The lack of movement in GBP is initially curious as the 2022 experience was different. Then again, if you look at the magnitude of today’s moves vs. 2022, there is no comparison.

Note at far right: today’s moves vs. the size of the moves in 2022. I’ve been skeptical as to the importance of the 26NOV budget date because I felt like everything would be leaked beforehand, and that still seems to be the base case. Today’s moves show, however, there is maybe still some capacity for panic. Also: austerity is good for the fiscal situation, but bad for growth and so the market is seeing many bad branches on the tree of possibility.

Calendar

Next week’s calendar contains some question marks as there is still no announcement with regard to the delayed data points in the U.S. The BLS website just says:

Revised news release dates following the 2025 lapse in appropriations

BLS will announce revised news release dates on this page as they become available. We appreciate your patience while we work to get this information out as soon as possible, as it may take time to fully assess the situation and finalize revised release dates.

Last modified: November 13, 2025

Here’s what we know:

Final Thoughts

1. This is going to sound silly, like I am joking, but I wonder if the popularity of the book 1929 and the many parallels to the current state of markets (retail-dominated spec madness, etc.) are adding to bearish sentiment. Everyone I know in markets is reading that book right now and if you read it, it’s impossible to ignore the echoes. I did not want to like the book, because it seems like well-trodden territory, but the detail and quality of research is impressive and it’s a good book. It’s the top business book on Amazon right now.

Maybe just a coincidence.

2. The US reached an agreement with Taiwan with regard to intervention. This has seen a collapse in USDTWD, and specs are taking it as a green light to sell USD/Asia and USDJPY. Asia and the US both seem to agree that USD/Asia lower is best.