Jobs, silver, BTC, NQ, +

Anecdotes

Most of the labor market data points to either a rapid slowing towards a low-breakeven equilibrium, or outright weakness. So I just thought I would highlight the uptick in the Truflation Employment Series. The release is too new to have much relevance, but I suppose we can add it to the dashboard of fifty grillion labor market indicators we follow.

https://truflation.com/marketplace/truflation-employment-index

Here’s how they describe the series: “The Truflation Employment Index aggregates data from high quality public and commercial data providers via API feeds, which include the Census Bureau, Social Security and SSI claims, Challenger, Gray & Christmas, and other relevant data sources, providing a comprehensive view of the labor market. Employment gains & losses that incorporate in real-time from multiple high-frequency sources.”

Like I said, probably not useful, but I highlight it just in case. Meanwhile, the BofA Consumer Checkpoint shows the US consumer continues to spend, and the k-shaped economy is alive and well. See link for the full report and breakdown of spending by cohort, etc.

The Fed is now priced 50/50 as the market attempts to judge the preferences of a split committee in the face of sparse and contradictory data. Even the ADP data is itself contradictory as it shows both job gains and job losses through an overlapping period.

September nonfarm payrolls are likely to come out next week. My guess is Tuesday, November 18. But does that release matter? With October NFP now likely to be marked by #N/A in the spreadsheets of the future, and November payrolls probably ready on time for December 5, it’s hard to know whether we should care about September NFP released in mid-November. I suppose a negative print could be a market mover, but… Will it? I am not sure.

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Silver and corn

Silver is going nuts again and narrowly exceeded the all-time high touched in October. Measuring its deviation from the 100-hour moving average it’s now more overbought than it was at that point.

Normally, that would be bearish but coming from a super oversold condition just 2.5 weeks ago, the signal is not as meaningful to me. That is, I am not a fader of silver or gold here this time. The first time up, r/wallstreetbets was full of screenshots of GLD call P&L and silver joy. This time, the move feels more stealth. Like it came out of nowhere and everyone is sitting flat and wondering what to do up here.

I flipped from short to long equities pre-market yesterday after a few weeks of happy shorting and my timing was not ideal. Stocks traded weak again yesterday and are not doing much now that the government shutdown has ended. I do think there is a good case for a return of liquidity and a rally from here, with precious metals leading the way like they did last time. But I am a little bit scared. My bullish views are concentrated in bitcoin miners, GOOG and NFLX because I think bitcoin will hold here and rally back towards 115k, and I think GOOG and NFLX are somewhat safe topside beta.

The thing I like about long bitcoin and its proxies here is that you know where you’re wrong. And many of the proxies have contracted to (or gone below) estimates of NAV or Enterprise Value and this gives you some feeling that there is a margin of safety. Price can go to a massive discount, of course, if it wants to, but you have to feel better about buying MSTR and 1.0X compared to 2.0X.

Here’s the bitcoin situation as I see it:

I am trying to show a few time frames here at once, hence the different colors. The trendline from August 2024 comes in around 99000 (green). The key pivot through 2025 has been 98400/99000 (purple line). The red triangle marks a narrowing wedge which breaks through either 98000 below or 107000 above. And finally, the thin blue line is a micro trendline around 101000. It all says to me that if we go below 98000, I’m cooked. In the meantime, I hope to survive the random chop in both stocks and crypto before a resolution higher. My dream is that I survive and hold these positions for a few weeks as the now-getting-louder AI bears capitulate into year end.

For the NASDAQ, here’s what I see. There’s a bull flag that says we shouldn’t go below 25400 and then you have the Friday gap through 25200. Below 25150 in NQ and I will seriously reconsider my bullish stance. A topside break of 25900 is super bullish and argues for a new ATH.

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Final Thoughts

1. I am out of the AUDNZD on the double spike post Aussie jobs. As mentioned yesterday: The current regime of low vol and no coherent narratives in FX is challenging. That said, we have been through this before. Volatility always comes back. Themes emerge. For now, FX and fixed income are themeless and sluggish while equities and commodities party like Posty.

2. Updated Brazil election odds from onshore:

LULA 35,5/38,5
TARCÍSIO 37,5/40,5
RATINHO 3,5/6,5

For context, on October 29 the odds were:

LULA 40,5/43,5
TARCÍSIO 31,5/34,5
RATINHO 9/12

This is directionally consistent with Polymarket, but note the offshore odds always favor Lula more. Absolute levels, onshore vs. offshore, matter less than the overall direction of travel. Angst in Rio, Bolsonaro/ Tarcísio meetings, and a recent Tarcísio-friendly poll are helping his cause. Good news for BRL and EWZ.

Have a welcoming day.

good luck ⇅ be nimble