Going long USD and short EURCHF with a 2-week time horizon
Ugh.
https://graphite.io/five-percent/more-articles-are-now-created-by-ai-than-humans
The article describes the methodology, and it sounds reasonable, I think.
Social media is not real people. Soon the internet won’t be either.
Long USDJPY @ 151.80
Stop 149.84. Target 154.84.
Short AUDUSD @ 0.6486
Stop 0.6576. Target 0.6357.
Short EURUSD @ 1.1585
Stop 1.1711. Target 1.1409.
Short EURCHF @ 0.9228
Stop 0.9285 Target 0.9111.
As I have been discussing, I think the asymmetry into CPI and into corporate month end is higher USD. I will put on four trades today.
Long USDJPY at 151.80 with a stop loss at 149.84. Take profit 154.84.
Risking 196 to make 314.
Hope to hold through corporate month end, no BOJ hike, and gamma squeeze towards 155.00.
Short AUDUSD at 0.6486 with a stop at 0.6576. Take profit 0.6357.
Risking 90 to make 129.
I am choosing AUD instead of CAD because I am not sure about Bank of Canada. The data has been good enough, but easy to look through. It would make sense for them to cut again given the housing situation, but the blip in jobs and CPI could make them hesitate.
Short EURUSD at 1.1585 with a stop at 1.1711. Target 1.1409.
Risking 126 to make 176.
Entry point is not great, but I still think it goes down from here.
Short EURCHF at 0.9228 with a stop at 0.9285. Target 0.9111.
Risking 57 to make 117.
Again, I normally like selling high, not low, but my instincts tell me EURCHF is gearing up for a crack of the famous 0.9205/20 level. If it’s going to happen, month end would be the time.
My logic is that with two cuts fully priced for the Fed, the asymmetry on CPI is to the strong side and the flow asymmetry from here until month end is buying USD. I expect that, similar to last month, there will not be enough supply of USD to meet the demand. I also don’t think the BOJ will hike, so that’s another small kicker for the JPY trade.
Keeping it short today. You could also do these plays via 2-week options, but when I priced them all up, none of them looked particularly cheap. Realized has been low, but you could expect that it might pick up given we are finally about to get a bunch of events.
My guess is that silver and gold margins are increased after 3 p.m. today. If they are not, I will probably square up shorts and move on. $46 is the first TP zone for shorts.
Some of the quotes would read like an ironic futurism piece by The Onion if they were written in 2015.
Large Bitcoin holders are waking up to “the convenience of being able to hold their exposure within their existing financial adviser or private-bank relationship,” Mitchnick said.
It’s the latest reinvention for the world’s largest cryptocurrency. Born as a decentralized revolt against mainstream financial institutions, Bitcoin is now being quietly absorbed by them. Its anti-establishment holders are warming up to the idea that some parts of finance are better accessed through the traditional system.
I find these quotes way funnier than they should be. The convenience of holding your BTC exposure within the private-bank relationship.” Mind-bending stuff when you hold it up to the origin story.
Don Mattingly has been in MLB since 1982.
14 years as a player, 12 as a manager, 17 as a coach.
Now after over 40 years in MLB, he’s headed to the World Series for the first time
Have a human day.
https://graphite.io/five-percent/more-articles-are-now-created-by-ai-than-humans
Ugh.
The article describes the methodology, and it sounds reasonable, I think.
Social media is not real people. Half of the articles on the internet aren’t either.
Hopefully it all just becomes so recursive and useless the models collapse, social media becomes an irrelevant self-replicating slop farm, and we have to start this whole online experiment over from scratch.
