What can’t go down

The USD can’t selloff

We have had a dovish Fed, a hawkish BOJ, a hawkish ECB, and the USD is solid. I would expect that the USD bears now must capitulate further, and this is a bad news / good price setup for the dollar. Perhaps it’s the equity inflows, or positioning, or the fact that a dovish Fed running it hot is bearish bonds… But whatever it is, I think the USD goes higher into month end. Next Friday is corporate month end and I think USD demand will outstrip supply at least until then.

It’s not a macro view, really, more just a view that US bond yields will rise to challenge the 4.20% area and could easily rip through with three auctions next week. I have little confidence in the US economic slowdown story as Atlanta Fed GDP is still above 3.0% and what we have just seen is the predictable July/August dip after the skyrocketing economic uncertainty triggered by April’s Liberation Day. This uncertainty has subsided, and a dovish Fed has lit a fire under already historically-loose financial conditions once again.

I am going long USDCAD and USDJPY with stops at 1.3693 and 146.93 respectively. Time horizon is somewhere between 7 and 10 days, targeting 1.4000 and 150.00. Exact details in the sidebar. The risk is that I am chasing the USD near the top of a tiny range, but that seems like a reasonable risk to take.

I like to keep things short on Friday, so that’s it!    Calendar below.     :]

Have a productive, goal-oriented weekend.

Trading Calendar for the Week of September 22, 2025

Torschlusspanik

tor: gate
schluss: closing
panik: panic

Torschlusspanik is the German word for “gate panic,” or the anxiety that time is running out. It literally translates to gate shut panic, from medieval times when people rushed to get inside city gates before they closed at night. Used to describe the fear of missed opportunities or the passage of time.

good luck ⇅ be nimble