Holding

Are we there yet?

Needless to say: we have had a substantial repricing as AI payback is in question, crypto has melted, the momentum trade has cracked, and the Fed is no longer a done deal for December. Many trends sit on the cliff’s edge. The momentum ETF has somewhat surprisingly held above the key $240 level.

NASDAQ futures, meanwhile, continue to bang around 24600/25000, with the key support just below at 24300/24400. The selling has been relentless on every rally, so the question is: have we deflated and rotated enough here, or is something more nefarious afoot? I’ve believed that this is more of a rotation than massive correction for about a week, and that view hasn’t served me very well. But I still believe that.

If you look at the damage in the zero revenue names (RGTI, OKLO, etc.), crypto DATs, and everything else that got wildly Bubblicious, it appears that quite a lot of spec fever has dissipated. In fact, I would argue the market is more outright bearish now than it has been in ages.

I am always open to the idea that I am wrong and this could be one of those times. For now, the technical damage is limited, and I think it’s not unreasonable to cling to a bullish view, especially as it pertains to companies with mega free cashflow and no debt issues (GOOG, NFLX, etc.) But sometimes babies get thrown out with bathwater.

ADP

ADP is releasing a 4-week moving average of weekly job changes to smooth some of the noise. You can take that data and back out the weekly numbers, which are easier to understand, but incredibly noisy.

Here you go (see table). The data paints a near-meaningless picture; I only present it to show you so that you are not tempted to trade this release in future.

Final Thoughts

1. Note to new subscribers: My goal with am/FX is not to fill a particular number of pages each day. On days like this, where FX isn’t doing anything and I don’t have much new to add to the conversation—I keep it short.
2. Sorry the non sequitur is so weird today. I’ll put something humorous and uplifting tomorrow.
3. EURCHF is an epic slingshot reversal. Sold off hard to make a new all-time closing low and now we are back above all the supports 0.9200/20. One for the radar as I don’t really see any reason to be long EURCHF, other than the chart. And a chart isn’t quite good enough on its own.
4. Bank of America’s latest global fund manager survey shows the biggest market “tail risk” is an AI stock bubble.  45% of investors named an AI bubble as the top risk — up sharply from October. • Only 17% cited rising bond yields (previously the #1 concern), and 16% cited inflation. HT CHUCK.

Have a healthy day.

99.9% of people have more than the average number of kidneys and thumbs.

It is possible to be born with 1 or 3 of these, but 1 is more common than 3.

https://www.livescience.com/man-three-kidneys-rare-condition.html

good luck ⇅ be nimble