Tidbits

USDJPY

We have found a new 250-pip wide happy zone for USDJPY here as the 34 yards of dollars dropped on the market continue to be digested. There appears to be near-infinite demand around 155.50/80 and the old support (now resistance) and the post-intervention highs come in around 158.00.

Note one, two, three, four wicks on the downside as the market breaches 156 over and over but can never hold below. I do not expect substantial news from the Bessent meetings this week, but I will be ready for anything.

Tuesday Japan time is by far the highest headline risk for JPY. Bessent arrives Monday and the meetings that day are prep/low level. Main meetings are all Tuesday. He leaves Wednesday for Beijing. My guess would be readouts would come Tuesday afternoon Japan time, or very late Monday night NY time. If you are buying options for an outcome either way, you probably want Wednesday expiry to be safe, but Tuesday could work as well.

I do not think it’s worth playing for a JPY-positive or USD-negative outcome because the EV of simply reacting is much higher than prepositioning / guessing given the high impact but low probability nature of any substantive announcement. The most likely outcome is a reiteration of the September 2025 agreement which echoes standard G7 and G10 FX language for the past 25+ years. FX should reflect fundamentals and intervention should fight excess volatility etc.

September 11, 2025 statement.  https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0245

---

Calendar

You can see in the calendar that Donald Trump visits China later in the week. That is likely to yield a bunch of word salad and nothing substantive. The market is not focused on the trade war with China. I cannot imagine CPI matters much given the war impact is fairly obvious and backward-looking. For the record, I set a new all-time record filling up my car today: $85.78. Before the war it was around $65.

---

Gold

Gold is getting closer to what I believe is a nice entry point as the retail froth is gone and we have two spike lows and the 200-day to use as support. The chart here shows how GLD call volume has now declined to pre-mania levels. If you sub in SLV calls, the chart looks identical.

Indian PM Modi asked his populace to stop buying gold for one year as the current account and currency weakness are becoming a major issue there. That’s why gold is down today while silver is up. It’s a fine reason for a down day in gold, but doesn’t change my view that buying dips is the play as we will probably revisit the all-time highs in the next three months.

As discussed Thursday, I am looking to get long GCQ6 at 4610. As always the idea is in the sidebar on page 1.

---

Crypto Survey

Summary results:

By region and age group:

This slide confirms what I have gathered from speaking to my sons and their friends: GenZ is not as interested in or bullish crypto. I would read this entire slide as more bearish than the real consensus because my readers skew TradFi and that skews less bullish crypto overall. But the relative breakdown across ages and geography should be fine to interpret as is. In coming years, the crypto industry will need to find some new, believable bull narratives to convince younger people that crypto isn’t just altcoin scams and/or another Wall Street product backed by big government.

And finally, you can see a bit less enthusiasm in North America vs. the rest of the world. I removed Middle East data because there were only 9 respondents and I apologize to South America as I meant to put “Americas” and I put “North America”. Whoops! LATAM: YOU STILL EXIST!

Honestly: This is not the most interesting survey result I have ever published. It is what it is.

---

Final Thoughts

This four-hour miniseries is a good meditation on freedom, personal demons, art vs. commerce, signs and omens, ravens, mental health, and peering into the abyss.

Have an unforgettable week.

Hi. Welcome to this week’s report. (To read about how I use and trade this report, see here.) The most surprising aspect of the current market is that around 70% of our clients are bullish USDJPY despite the MOF intervention. There is substantial skepticism over the Japanese strategy as they appear to be targeting only a level, not the speed of the JPY move. Central banks targeting levels have historically had much less success than those targeting speed. The CME’s ongoing obsession with short NZD (and/or long AUDNZD) continues. Overall, positioning is not hugely relevant right now as the market is about 20% of max risk in FX. Interest in EM and long carry remains high, but G10 is mostly ignored.

Flag of Siam 1855 to 1913

On this day in 1949, Siam changed its name to Thailand for good.

The change was announced by Prime Minister Songgram to reflect the nation’s identity as the “Land of the Free”. This permanent change followed a previous, temporary shift from Siam to Thailand in 1939.

“Thai” (ไทย) means “free” or “free people”

good luck ⇅ be nimble