EURUSD is still sell rallies. So are stocks. Need to let some of the froth out.
It makes sense that USDT and BTC inflows would benefit the USD, but the evidence is difficult to parse and inconclusive. Big rejection in EURUSD.
If you caught the EURUSD move via options, this is a good place to square up.
Day One tariffs are bullish USD, if they happen, but seasonality, yields, policy uncertainty, speculative froth, and rangebound technicals all argue caution.
Trump has returned but the actual vs. presumed policy mix is yet to be seen.
Is yen repatriation about to pick up?
Everyone’s watching the election. Around the rest of the world, we have settled into a comfortable equilibrium.
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