The risks to the bond market look asymmetrical this week. Higher yields ahead.
China’s big stimulus feels a bit like Mario Draghi’s Whatever It Takes moment.
Golden Week doesn’t have much impact on FX vol. Uptober is fun to say but probably meaningless. Powell, NFP, ISM, and German CPI next week.
It is hard not to be cynical about the never-ending parade of China stimulus announcements, but the setup might mean this one matters more.
EURUSD looks high. Consumer Confidence estimates look low.
The Fed cut into relative quiet, China is slow, Canada is back on target, Ueda sounds dovish again, and Germany is hanging on for dear life.
MXN is behaving badly. The LDP race next week should be more of a hot topic.
Rate differentials have not moved, and therefore I am not convinced that we are on the cusp of a meaningful extension lower for the dollar. Japan votes 27SEP.
The first Fed rate cut is always an important marker when we look back at financial history. You’re living it! Let’s make lots of money.
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