Benchmarking past moves in FX can help you think about what might happen tomorrow.
No obvious macro trade emerges. Yields tend to go lower, gold tends to go higher, and FX is a bit of a mess.
Next week’s FOMC is now a coin toss. Fun. And: Does a weekend sentiment survey predict the future? Definitely (maybe).
The rate cut debate heated up this week and so did every risky asset in the world.
If you look at levels, not changes, it looks a lot like 2017-2019.
The debate result was clear, but the impact on financial markets is not.
There is more topside than downside risk for this month’s CPI, but there is no inflation problem in the United States as gasoline prices are collapsing, etc.
An update on USDJPY’s return to normal. And a 6-month USDINR idea where if it’s wrong you can blame Phil and if it’s right you can thank me.
The short-term Fed outlook is blurry even as the primary story is one of two options.
Much hinges on Waller, but USDJPY shorts are getting a bit crowded and AUDCAD has some bullish features.
Catch up with Brent Donnelly and Macro Alf every week on The Macro Trading Floor. Listen as they discuss themes that are moving markets, highlight important trade ideas, and get to the bottom of what’s going on in macro.
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