The Spectra Markets Archive

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Empleo no agricola

Wait, he’s not writing about the jobs report, is he?

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136 Hours

Still a coin toss.

Friday Speedrun

Portnoy Was Right

In 2020, Dave Portnoy boldly stated that “Stocks only go up.” He was not wrong.

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Cross Purposes

What drives the cross you want to trade? What drives CFETS in quiet times?

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The Final Countdown

You now have a lousy 80s song stuck in your head.

Highlights

A fun story from 2016

The 2016 election was a fait accompli, until it was not.

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CNH EV and short USDCAD

USDCNH looks like positive EV but there are four caveats. Short USDCAD into BoC.

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Bank of Canada

I think it will be very hard for 2025 Bank of Canada pricing to come true.

Friday Speedrun

Black Mirror

Macro is a whirlpool right now with China stimmy, US elections, and stonking US data all competing for airtime.

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Friday Stuff

A bit more on yesterday’s piece and some thoughts on Trump pricing.

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Gold and Envy

Gold as a release valve for US deficits and an update on the Magazine Cover Indicator

Highlights

pm/FX: Short GBPJPY

This post-CPI GBP bounce is an opportunity to sell.

The Macro Trading Floor podcast

Catch up with Brent Donnelly and Macro Alf every week on The Macro Trading Floor. Listen as they discuss themes that are moving markets, highlight important trade ideas, and get to the bottom of what’s going on in macro.

“am/FX is a must read for everyone who wants to
understand global macro trading.”

John Mauldin, Chairman
Mauldin Economics

50 Trades in 50 Weeks

One year of good ideas, dumb mistakes, and timeless trading lessons over a wide range of topics like tactics, strategy, mindset, risk management, and of course the psychology of successful trading. Watch real trade ideas come to life in real time.

We do not teach trading strategies.

We teach you how to think, reason, and behave like someone who makes money.