Why I don’t like the USD higher but can’t bring myself to get short.
A summary of Day 2 at Dirtcon. Some super interesting facts and stories in here.
These are my notes from Day 1 of Jared Dillian’s macro conference in South Carolina.
• Putting the move in US 2-year yields in perspective.
• The Phillips Curve as used in popular economics vs. the actual curve Bill Phillips proposed. There is a big difference.
A theory on why EURUSD and USDCNH are going up in tandem. Plus.. take some profit at 6.4940/80 in USDCNH.
We hit the measured move target and are very close to bricklike resistance in US10s. AUD is in play. USDJPY intervention is extremely unlikely. There are many steps to go before it happens.
USDJPY in perspective. Why 130.00 shoudl cap USDJPY. Long AUDUSD.
AAII sentiment data sends a very bullish signal. Time to cover GBPUSD shorts and look for fresh ideas.
Catch up with Brent Donnelly and Macro Alf every week on The Macro Trading Floor. Listen as they discuss themes that are moving markets, highlight important trade ideas, and get to the bottom of what’s going on in macro.
John Mauldin, Chairman
Mauldin Economics
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