EURUSD trading with a bit of a stagflation vibe as ECB talks higher rates and lower growth.
US CPI tomorrow is asymmetric. A strong number will catch people leaning the wrong way.
This is the place to take profit in USDJPY. I think ECB will be dovish.
Talking about the USD, 2-year yields, stocks and the absurd length of Chile.
Today’s note looks at why you can’t solve equities with a one variable equation: Fed’s Balance Sheet.
But you can partially solve equities with a 2-variable equation.
Also: why a rise in 2-year yields is more and more bearish equities relative to history. And some crazy accurate predictions from 1997.
• Macro and Fed framework from market veteran Todd Edgar
• An oil story that looks like clickbait
• EURCHF does a cartoon cliff dive and trampoline rebound on CPI
Not in that order.
The Fed can’t get too dovish or oil will bite them in the butt.
An interesting note with a boring title.
Topics:
• Fed
• The death of TINA
• Where to invest
• What the heck is going on in China politics?
• More
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