I went into today’s decision-making process with an aggressively unbiased mindset.
And came out bearish EURUSD.
• I was v wrong on CPI
• This CPI release is likely to be a vol killer
• Sell EURAUD as a 2-week trade as vol fizzles ahead of Jackson Hole (25-27AUG)
A bit longer than usual (2500 words, 10-minute read).
These are my notes from Camp Kotok in Maine.
Topics:
• Inertia in the US economy
• Unusually high levels of complexity in the US economy
• Russia/Ukraine
• Passamaquoddy history
• The Fed
• EM POV on inflation
• Deglobalization as a series of idiosyncratic shocks
Here are some pieces of advice for young men and women before they head off to college.
We went to max overshoot yields and USDJPY.
Now we consolidate for a bit.
Discusses the Ethereum merge, Bitcoin versus Ethereum (including a flippening in options Open Interest), and the still-hazy macro outlook for crypto.
• Epic move in the yield curve
• JPY frenzy
• Good levels to reload GBP shorts into BoE
Talking about:
• The widening divide: real vs. nominal.
• Do you really want to be long stocks into Pelosi?
• Bad seasonality coming for stonks.
A quick post-mortem on the strong JPY trade, which I identified, but mishandled / mistimed.
Some useful takeaways, I believe.
Looking at why trading the Month End Model in FX has become less profitable and why I think that is a permanent regime shift, not a temporary one.
Ceci n’est pas un FOMC preview.
Talking instead about the somewhat obscure CPI fixings market and the SEC’s failure to regulate crypto.
Talking about the Fed, EURUSD, and the somewhat obvious reason soft data leads hard data.
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