Today’s note is about how I do not think the Fed will sound dovish anytime soon.
Yuck. That data today is not good. If USA was the only global engine. And it’s sputtering.
The ECB rate hike decision and the antifragmentation tool result tomorrow are correlated.
ECB and Nordstream coming up soon. The market is a tad paralyzed as many are quiet despite biggish moves.
Talking about:
• Positioning isn’t all that useful in bear markets. In fact, it’s directional.
• Bad news / good price is a short-term phenomenon that has probably now played out.
• Quiet, choppy consolidation to start the week, but I think you still sell rallies in stocks.
Talking mostly about the ongoing sketchiness of the ECB antifragmentation details … and briefly about the ongoing frustration of USDJPY.
Why there will be no quick pivot from central banks and why EURJPY can still go lower.
ISM guts are bad. Crazy visual of the epic / historic move in mortgage rates.
Talking about a particular stock market phenomenon that is well known but not well understood
+ notes from Matt Gittins’ trip to visit clients in London.
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