My entry in EURUSD was bad but I still think it goes higher. US goods inflation is cooling but that doesn’t mean people understand that. +Mexico. +Roaring Kitty.
With no real macro themes to grab onto at the moment, markets aren’t doing much. Disinflationary winds have stopped and cuts are being priced out.
Disinflation in Europe has stalled. Wage growth is strong. Energy prices are no longer a disinflationary contribution. The runup into ECB should reflect expectations for a hawkish cut.
Not a bad time to lighten up on GLP-1 exposure. It’s all priced in. Also: Watch JGBs.
South Africa goes to the polls. Plus: An interesting study on “finfluencers”.
A messy unwind of some of the most popular trades, along with another post-earnings ramp higher in NVDA.
The S&P Services figure was enough to decimate some short-term positions, but the damage has been contained as key levels hold. Could be more noise than signal.
The ECB cuts are slowwwwly getting priced out. This is good for EURUSD.
There are generally two waves of vol buying into watershed events like Brexit and market-moving elections. A short discussion of that pattern. Plus, the AUD chart.
I see three reasons for an asymmetry to the strong side in CAD CPI. And the setup to go long CAD as a tactical trade is attractive.
There are many aspects of trading and mathematics that are counterintuitive. I find these particularly intriguing and important because our instincts are incorrect when assessing mathematical concepts like variance, probability, and the distribution of returns. Today, we talk about variance and distribution.
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