A discussion and analysis of Friday’s CPI revisions. It’s hard to know if they matter; but might as well be ready just in case.
Today’s note covers the big dollar and G10 views from Brazil, with my views mixed in.
Back from a blockbuster trip to Rio and São Paulo.
A high conviction trade idea in CNH and a metric tonne of other thoughts.
The soft landing continues. Core PCE is low, stocks are at the ATH, and both nominal and real growth are strong. Good news is good news.
Considering there are a grillion events next week, 1-week USDJPY vol looks cheap to me.
The economic and political calculus in a world of falling inflation, strong jobs, huge UST issuance, and solid growth is… Complicated.
Reprehensible performance by AUD and NZD on the HSI rally.
Also: Jared Dillian has a new book ! Review inside.
Some interesting game theory around tonight’s BOJ meeting. Plus: I’m bearish NZD but not in a huge hurry.
While most expect the hard data to catch down to the weak soft sentiment data… Maybe the exact opposite will happen.
I think the weak soft data will soon rally to catch up with the strong hard data (the exact opposite of what the market has been expecting).
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