Overall, my view (as outlined last week) is higher USD, higher yields, flat or lower stocks, and weaker CHF.
It has been quite the year in macro as every single theme had a half-life measured in weeks.
It is an exciting time; the new year is right around the corner.
Thanks for everything in 2023 and may 2024 exceed your expectations by at least 215%.
Taking a look at how USDJPY is historically almost always a rates trade, plus an update on the most popular coins in crypto.
Today’s am/FX is preparatory backtesting for a trade I will probably do next week.
Looking at the results from our 2024 outlook survey, which includes G10 FX, EMFX, yields, and other assets.
Both USDJPY and NASDAQ are back where they started their recent moves from, and I don’t see a great trade idea on either one yet.
Even with potential for a hawkish surprise at BOJ tonight, the path of least resistance for USDJPY may still be up.
The market leaned into rate cuts but having been burned so many times by rate cut bets that got slowly sucked out by strong data, we bounced.
It’s hard to take Williams seriously. Also AUD, CAD, gold, and silver tend to do well into year end.
Quick comments on SNB and Norges and some quick takeaways from a post-Fed macro dinner.
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