The market is getting bullish AUD but does not yet have the position while the CFTC is heavily short and the RBA has a chance to recover credibility.
Soft data from the US and Canada should keep yields heavy, risky assets happy and push cross/JPY lower.
Why sentiment data in the US has not been a useful predictor of hard data or the real economy.
I think this BOJ reaction, unlike past reactions, will end up being wrong.
CAT warning along with Komatsu and price action in Terex doesn’t look bullish.
The level of the USD is elevated but corporate and real money buying should keep pushing it higher over the next few days.
Talking about the behavior of gold and EURCHF around major geopolitical events.
Turnaround Tuesday, CAD may be ripe for a short, and other FX considerations.
A frequently asked question, answered.
Plus: It’s time to get mortgage resets back on the radar but safer to keep ignoring soft data and wait for the hard data to turn.
A guest post today from an ex-Greenlight guy who is now CIO of a new hedge fund that launches in a few months.
The Fed, Powell, BTPs, nurdles, and why I’m having trouble coming up with a coherent trading view.
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