The dollar is underperforming US yields and rate differentials. This looks like a garden variety divergence that has more to do with excessive long USD positioning, not anything more nefarious.
Bond vol is the new stock vol.
USD longs hit a 1-year high in our Positioning Report.
Mr. Pringle’s first name is Julius.
Talking mostly about the Bank of Canada today. And US bonds, of course.
Today’s CPI breakdown looks incredibly noisy to me. With the Fed not in play for November, I don’t think today’s data changes anything.
Lot of GDPNow haters but it hasn’t been a terrible compass in a world where pessimism rules.
The Fed’s acknowledgement that higher real and long yields are tightening financial conditions should lock the front end and lead to lower fixed income vol and a recovery in EMFX.
Price action on big data releases has often been more important than the release itself. Let’s see where things close today.
Oversold metrics in stocks, blowoff tops in yields, positive seasonality, and footprints in the sand.
I get why people think this is the start of a liquidity event, but I can’t quite get over the line myself.
Looks like MOF is selling USDJPY, but this is still unconfirmed so far.
Taking a bigger picture look at fixed income and getting more, not less confused about stocks.
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