Positioning, seasonality, and weekend data risks all point to strong risky assets next week.
Today I clarify my thinking on the new relationship between energy prices and the US dollar.
Talking about equity seasonals and whether higher rates are good, bad, or ugly.
2024 forecasts for GDP and CPI of the major economies are all in the same ballpark and assume mean reversion.
With risk parity heavy, USDMXN bid and corporate and real money likely to buy USD… I think AUDUSD will break down this week.
My conclusion from the survey we did is that the dovish FOMC outcome is underpriced. You could think about short USDJPY into FOMC and if it works, ride it into BOJ. Stop above 148.70. I like the idea but it didn’t’ quite meet sidebar-level conviction.
I think CAD CPI is more likely to be strong and UK CPI is more likely to be weaker than economists’ expectations.
The EURJPY short call through ECB was good, but the tactics left much to be desired.
Entering the seasonal danger zone for stocks. Initial reaction to ECB is good for the EURJPY short but we need Lagarde to ratify what looks like a signal that the ECB is at the end of the cycle.
Catch up with Brent Donnelly and Macro Alf every week on The Macro Trading Floor. Listen as they discuss themes that are moving markets, highlight important trade ideas, and get to the bottom of what’s going on in macro.
John Mauldin, Chairman
Mauldin Economics
One year of good ideas, dumb mistakes, and timeless trading lessons over a wide range of topics like tactics, strategy, mindset, risk management, and of course the psychology of successful trading. Watch real trade ideas come to life in real time.
We teach you how to think, reason, and behave like someone who makes money.
