Thinking about how things now are not all THAT dissimilar to how they were at the end of 2019.
A food for thought piece.
The USD short has been working well, but tomorrow is corporate month end and that’s been a bad day to be short USD.
The Fed, Treasury, PBoC, and MoF are all breathing a bit easier at the moment.
A look at some wisdom from Edward Tufte, on the presentation and honesty of visual data (and PowerPoints).
I think this dip in currencies is a good opportunity to get short USD as we move to the middle of the USD smile.
The optimists are in control. Economic data continues to look good and I don’t think tomorrow’s Retail Sales number really matters.
It’s that time of year. Check out some images from the 2024 Almanac, see how the seasonal alerts have performed this year, and order the book.
Two corrections and a bunch of new thoughts on yesterday’s piece.
Thinking about Sahm’s Rule had me wondering whether you could copy her methodology but use Initial Claims instead of the UR to get an indicator with lower latency. It seems like you can.
Going through a few reasons I was wrong on AUD and looking at a few other bits and pieces.
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