NFP tends to be weak in March after strong January-February. The Household Survey is a noisy series that has been bear food. But it’s getting hard to ignore.
Seasonality, techs, commodities, and a possible turn in the manufacturing cycle make this an interesting time to take a shot at short USD.
The low volatility and strong risky asset returns continue. The Everything Rally (Part 2) continues to mirror 2021.
Waller shows how central bank guidance is contingent on future data. And future data is hard to predict, rendering the central bank guidance mostly useless.
The April Bank of Canada meeting would be a good opportunity to tee up a June rate cut, contingent on the CPI releases in between.
After spending all of 2024 in a 7.13/7.23 range, USDCNH has broken out. A bit.
The loss of momentum in momo stocks is offset by the strong performance after CPI.
Macro, technicals, positioning, and cross-market correlation point to higher EURGBP.
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