Markets are on fire. This does not mean there will never be another recession ever again. Obviously. But the soft landing is here. You’re living in it.
Today’s piece goes into why CPI is more important than AHE. Still, chalk up a point for the disinflationista Goldilocks camp after today’s data.
The CADCHF short was sort of like being wrong and still not losing money. I still like the trade.
Checking in on the dollar smile. Just because I think the BoJ doesn’t matter, doesn’t mean the market agrees.
CADJPY never hit my level to go short, but I still like short CAD so I’m going against CHF instead.
I think we are in a slow topping process for USDJPY and cross/JPY. CHF weakness remains impressive.
Stocks at all-time highs. Just about zero risk premium in any market. Volatility in the toilet. Everything is awesome.
Today’s title is a bit facetious in that when everyone is greedy and there is no risk premium in any market, that is the moment of greatest risk.
We’re in a period of central bank convergence. I don’t think yields are going down, but they probably won’t go up much.
Talking about similarities between Canada and NZD and why I want to get short CADJPY on a small rally from here.
My base case for the RBNZ is no hike but maybe hawkish. FX vol is low, but… don’t worry, it never stays that way.
Corporate month end has been seeing USD selling, not buying, of late… but I still think that USD up is a better bet into t-2.
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