A mix of topics today including: China reopening, AUDUSD, CNH, Canadian consumer debt, and time machine conversations using AI.
Looking at the results of my recent survey into the traits that differentiate experienced professional traders from noobs.
Something for everyone today as I talk about FX, USD, stock/bond correlation, and rising fear of a US recession as early as Q1 2023.
There are excellent points and counterpoints in the 2023 US recession debate. Here’s what I am watching.
Bullish bonds only works if you think we are in a post-1990 inflation regime. Turkey dinner might make you sleepy but not because of the tryptophan.
The weak South Korean exports data over the weekend, and the continued inversion of 3m/10y in the USA are bullish bonds. Lots to chew on in today’s piece!
We are on the cusp of a possible regime shift post-CPI but until we break some of these 200-day moving averages, I’m keeping an open mind.
EURUSD and SPX are the main ones but there are plenty of others within a day’s range or two.
We have gone from EU energy crisis and EURUSD at .96 to “winter’s gonna be fine” and EURUSD at 1.0430. Quite a swing.
Today’s EURUSD close (above or below the 200-day) will be important for psychology.
Catch up with Brent Donnelly and Macro Alf every week on The Macro Trading Floor. Listen as they discuss themes that are moving markets, highlight important trade ideas, and get to the bottom of what’s going on in macro.
John Mauldin, Chairman
Mauldin Economics
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