Today a deeper investigation why I have not had a great run of late. I hope you find some of the analysis useful for your own trading.
Plus long USDCAD.
Conclusion: Private inputs like the Manheim Used Car Index are becoming less useful for predicting the miss in official CPI releases.
Nominals and real yields could put pressure on carry, including the crowd favorite: MXN.
Epsilon Connect was a conference about hard mainstream topics, how things are going wrong, and what we can do about it. And it was extremely optimistic.
Updates on month end and why the textbook models don’t—and won’t—work anymore. Except USDJPY.
And maybe EURSEK?
I have been thinking US yields lower for a while and today I started with July seasonality and how it points to lower yields. But after thinking it through more thoroughly, I actually came to the conclusion that maybe yields aren’t going lower for now, despite the seasonal.
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