Talking about a seasonal quirk in USDCNH around the turn of the month. Even if you don’t care about USDCNH, there are some broader points on how FX trades into month end.
People are trying to do the UK stagflation trade again, but nominals usually win.
A quick rundown of the current state of TINA, the USD, and US exceptionalism. Plus more.
Last week’s NZ budget and the scorching immigration numbers make short NZD into RBNZ a bad trade, imo. I am covering the tactical short from last week.
The change in China narrative does not look fully priced in AUD and NZD. And some feedback on yesterday’s piece about poker.
With the passing of Doyle Brunson, today is a good day to compare poker to trading.
Taking profit on EURMXN, lowering the stop on NZDUSD, and glancing at SPX.
There is an asymmetry to the inflation expectations number in NZ tonight and USDCNH is bid and copper is smelting.
I think we can now move on from the China reopening narrative and keep an open mind on China.
We are in an uneasy equilibrium where the future always looks sketchy but that sketchy future never arrives.
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