The USD is boosted by Waller, position squareups and bank earnings stability but it’s more like a noise day than a trend changer.
On the empirical and verifiable realness of seasonality in market prices and why it sometimes gets a bad rap from the more statistically minded.
I think the EV of short USD through PPI and Retail Sales is high.
The US data is rolling over, very slowly. NFIB is another data point but CPI and Retail Sales will be more important.
I understand why SOFR lotto ticket longs are cutting and USD shorts are covering a bit today, but overall today’s report is noise, not signal.
Short, quick thoughts today as it feels like everyone is mostly waiting for tomorrow.
Cracks are appearing as there is an unmistakable trend in the post-SVB US data.
RBA disappoints again, and oil might be relevant again soon.
Tonight’s RBA is big and there is a ton to chew on this week in macro.
Today I push back on the USD doom hysteria that has overrun FinTwit. This does not mean I can’t be bullish bitcoin, though.
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