FOMC today .. Here is my grid of subjective probabilities for Fed and market outcomes.
I don’t want to go with the AUDUSD move post-RBA because we’re about to focus back on the USA again.
The USD is raging back just as the April bearish USD seasonal expires.
German CPI tomorrow is an important test for the long EUR trade, especially as the seasonals turn less friendly.
Seven reasons I like selling USDJPY into 11 a.m. NY time today.
Nonsensical x-date madness is coming.
… plus: a flashback to one of the greatest FX trades I have ever seen.
USDJPY looks high vs. yields and this BOJ looks underhyped, but tomorrow is corporate month end.
Some takeaways from Day 1 of the Crypto and the Future of Finance conference in Sarasota, Florida.
UK inflation knocked over a bunch of overbought dominoes but doesn’t mean much for global macro.
Top of the range in yields, middle of the USD smile. Path of least resistance remains lower USD despite this 2-day correction.
The benign consensus and VIX at 17 is inconsistent with 95th percentile SPX shorts.
Something has to give.
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