Today I push back on the USD doom hysteria that has overrun FinTwit. This does not mean I can’t be bullish bitcoin, though.
We tried on a few narratives in 2023 but none of them fit for long.
I think disinflationary bust will stick around for longer. At least the next three months and maybe longer.
Short USDJPY and USDCHF will be good trades if that view is correct.
Here’s a crazy thought: What if the inverted yield curve doesn’t just predict recession, it partly causes it?
The path of least resistance from here should be bonds up, USD down. Regional bank stress will dissipate as liquidity is plentiful.
Given the fissures in bank stocks, I would not expect an orthodox reaction to NFP today.
The BOJ USDJPY put skew is incredibly high. Almost as high as at peak COVID panic.
Back end yields are the story as the market sees growing dangers on the economic horizon.
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