Everyone expects strong Retail Sales today so it could be priced in. Then again, we’re just on a run here in yields and the USD and that could accelerate as equities enter a bearish seasonal period.
Thoughts into CPI. What currencies are best to trade and how much they are likely to move.
The question for this year has always been: “How far it will inflation fall and where will it find a floor?”
I was extremely wrong on the BOJ but the question now is to figure out what’s next. It’s definitely not obvious.
Market feels burnt-out and in temporary equilibrium. Cutting the USDCAD trade.
I still like USD higher and USDJPY higher but I think options better than cash for a bunch of reasons.
The Esteemed Chairman has a second chance to say what he really means today.
Talking about yields, USDJPY, the US economy and more.
Plus a fun and upsetting excerpt from Ben Hunt’s Epsilon Theory.
Stocks and VIX were both up, which is bearish. You can play this through FX if you’d like.
FOMC is not too worried about financial conditions. Nakaso’s odds just dropped. EURGBP trade ITM for now.
Today’s FOMC is probably noise while the series of bottoms in gasoline, lumber, housing, and business sentiment might not be.
Long NOK is a negative asymmetric bet on global risk appetite, not a bet on Norway.
Catch up with Brent Donnelly and Macro Alf every week on The Macro Trading Floor. Listen as they discuss themes that are moving markets, highlight important trade ideas, and get to the bottom of what’s going on in macro.
John Mauldin, Chairman
Mauldin Economics
One year of good ideas, dumb mistakes, and timeless trading lessons over a wide range of topics like tactics, strategy, mindset, risk management, and of course the psychology of successful trading. Watch real trade ideas come to life in real time.
We teach you how to think, reason, and behave like someone who makes money.
